[mali]

This is so just speculation.

[Monk]

While sticking with the pre-order would be cheaper, waiting for the second batch would effectively leave my delivery date unchanged. I might wait a few weeks more for the second batch, but have a lot more security as reviews would start to roll in from those first 400 or 800 users. My biggest concern will be that there will be some sort of supply problem that causes delays or problems for those of us later in the queue...

Take your time in answering.. I probably have several days left to wait for my re-order mail to show up...

There are several issues here, most of which have been covered well either in this or other threads. However one aspect I haven't seen mentioned in this thread (or lately) is that it's been said by OpenPandora (I can't recall if it was Craig, Chip, or Ed) that existing pre-orderers who wait for the second batch will have their price protected (so it should NOT cost more) and will get "priority" treatment over completely new second batch orders (which should mean you get an early second batch unit).

This is, of course, assuming that a second batch occurs (and if it doesn't then as a dev I imagine you'd be as dissapointed as the rest of us).

HOWEVER - don't count yourself so late in the "first batch" of micro-batches. It seems there have been enough cancellations to allow new first-batch orders, which means that everyone confirming their order will be moving up the queue as new orders are tagged to the end. You might have been in the last 100 units pre-ordered originally, but you arne't in the last 100 units now. Where you are exactly even OpenPandora probably don't know as more pre-order cash and cancellations are yet to come in, but if you stick with your pre-order you may well end up getting your faster than you expect.

Here're my two cents: I don't see at this point in time how a developer should be considered more valuable than someone who invested their money into the Pandora (which every pre-orderer has done!), and as such I don't see why developers should get their finished Pandoras earlier than the pre-orderers.

The point you are missing here is that Trevor Bradley is a pre-orderer

But he won't be if he doesn't re-place his pre-order, will he? I thought that was a large part of the point...

Even if he doesn't go for a first batch unit (which I think he should, personally) he's assurred a price promise and priority treatment as a second batch customer.

[Mithrildor]

My biggest concern will be that there will be some sort of supply problem that causes delays or problems for those of us later in the queue.

The only part that could cause delays is the LCD screen. But it was mentioned before that all screens were already delivered at Chip (If not correct me)

[joa]

Putting dev in first place is a bad idea. They're going to develop no matter what. The queue should be left as is imo.

[Trevor Bradley]

I do not want to be bumped from my (crappy) place in the queue. For hardware and driver devs, people who will make the pandora usable (by which I mean working command prompt, and *maybe* that fancy Angstrom OS) on Day 1, by all means bump them up. But homebrew devs like me can wait.

I will instead encourage those people not developing at the moment to consider it if they have the time. It's loads of fun.

My question is just as legitimate for the person immediately before me and after me in line. I don't believe we've heard anything official about assembly time. It would be nice to get an "official guestimate" of the between batch time, double or triple it, sleep on that data and make my decision from there.

Apologies for my caution. I've had the rug pulled out beneath me enough times in my life that I like to take a pragmatic approach to all financial decisions. Then again.... PANDORA! OMFGBBQ!

[Monk]

Apologies for my caution. I've had the rug pulled out beneath me enough times in my life that I like to take a pragmatic approach to all financial decisions. Then again.... PANDORA! OMFGBBQ!

ROFLOL - join the gang! Wifey was shocked that I'd re-order without credit card protection. It's out of character - normally I'd say things like "if it's too good to be true (e.g. the Pandora) then it probably is". But in this instance the thing is just TOO good to pass up, IMHO. And wait? I've been waiting since early September for my "late birthday present". I can't wiat MUCH longer without something internal and probably oily exploding. And we don't want that - do we?

[Iorgy77]

A lot of people would have kept their refunds and been unable to or chosen not to re order, so your place in the queue might not be as far back as you think.

[Chip]

I don't believe we've heard anything official about assembly time. It would be nice to get an "official guestimate" of the between batch time, double or triple it, sleep on that data and make my decision from there.

Official guestimate: Four to six weeks from the first to the last of the first batch Pandoras. Give or take a couple weeks for testing and tweaking the assembly process.

Once the manufacturing process is 100% nailed down (2nd batch onwards) the plant can make ~5000 per month, though they can only make them as fast as we can get parts. Second batch will probably start up about two months after the first is finished (again, depending on parts availability).

So at least 3-4 weeks before first batch starts, 4-6 weeks after that it finishes, then ~8 weeks until the 2nd batch starts. If you want a Pandora soon, order from the first batch. Otherwise you'll be waiting a while.

A lot of people would have kept their refunds and been unable to or chosen not to re order, so your place in the queue might not be as far back as you think.

Not as many people have canceled as you might think. Last I heard, the total number of unaccounted-for orders (confirmed cancellations and preorder customers who have not yet repaid or canceled) was less than 300. If you pre-ordered and you still want a Pandora, reorder soon.

[_VWV_]

So the difference in the second batch may be as much as 2 months (8 weeks)! Wow. If they start mass production in March then it's MAY...

[Phawx]

Yea, March 1st production starts. 6 weeks later they are all finished. 2 weeks for delivery. Say the last Pandora from the first batch should be delivered at the end of April.

Not too bad. Almost at the end.

[lulzfish]

I hate to say this, but I think I'm going to wait for the second batch just to make sure nothing goes wrong. I probably won't have the necessary cooperation of my parents until a few thousand people already have them anyway.

[_VWV_]

Yea, March 1st production starts. 6 weeks later they are all finished. 2 weeks for delivery. Say the last Pandora from the first batch should be delivered at the end of April.

Not too bad. Almost at the end.

You've forgotten the "Give or take a couple weeks". + we have not applied a special time coefficient which is called "the official guesstimates multiplier"...

[Trevor Bradley]

Considering back in the refund days, I got my refund email minutes before the "OK, all refund emails have been sent", I think I'm pretty late in the queue...

I don't want to be hopeful that more and more people are canceling and bumping me up in the queue. The success of the Pandora relies on a larger dev community, brought about by interest in Pandora because more and more are on the market:

Everybody's screwed if less than 4000 are produced.
We, the purchasers of the Pandora, break even (cashwise) if the first 4000 are produced.
Craig and the OP team break even (cashwise) if the second 4000 are produced. We the purchasers profit (software wise) from the extra devs brought in by interest in the project.
Everybody profits, in their own way, if the third 4000 is produced.

It's in everybody's interest that 8000+ Pandora make it to market. Anything less will likely be deemed a failure, which means less people will care about writing for the system and less software produced in horribly cyclical Catch-22 logic.

It's one of the main reasons keeping me in on the first batch: I want the project to succeed. Craig & Co are doing an amazing thing and deserve to be rewarded for it.

It's also in all of our best interest to show of this thing like hell when we get them, and try to get about 5 of our friends to buy one.

I've still got some time before my mail comes in, so I still have some time to parse and think about this. Would be nice to get an official answer to my original question before then though.

You've forgotten the "Give or take a couple weeks". + we have not applied a special time coefficient which is called "the official guesstimates multiplier"...

Not to be too cynical, but "Official Time estimate times 3" has been fairly close to the mark here in the past 6 months.. And it's never, EVER "Give an (extra) couple of weeks", always "take an (extra) couple of weeks". I think that's just a corollary of the 2nd law of thermodynamics...

Anyone suggesting the multiplier be less than 1.5 has never worked on a project close to this magnitude before.

Not that that's a bad thing. It's just reality for a new project of this complexity.

Official guestimate: Four to six weeks from the first to the last of the first batch Pandoras. Give or take a couple weeks for testing and tweaking the assembly process.

Once the manufacturing process is 100% nailed down (2nd batch onwards) the plant can make ~5000 per month, though they can only make them as fast as we can get parts. Second batch will probably start up about two months after the first is finished (again, depending on parts availability).

So at least 3-4 weeks before first batch starts, 4-6 weeks after that it finishes, then ~8 weeks until the 2nd batch starts. If you want a Pandora soon, order from the first batch. Otherwise you'll be waiting a while.

Thank you Chip. This is the information I needed to make my decision.

[Monk]

Not as many people have canceled as you might think. Last I heard, the total number of unaccounted-for orders (confirmed cancellations and preorder customers who have not yet repaid or canceled) was less than 300. If you pre-ordered and you still want a Pandora, reorder soon.

Good to hear, but it's enough that you're taking new orders for batch #1 even though the re-pre-order period isn't over yet.

It's one of the main reasons keeping me in on the first batch: I want the project to succeed. Craig & Co are doing an amazing thing and deserve to be rewarded for it.

It's also in all of our best interest to show of this thing like hell when we get them, and try to get about 5 of our friends to buy one.

It's a good couple of reasons - support for Craig & Co., and enlightened self interest. Let's face it, the larger the community grows the more we are likely to benefit from it on the whole. the more people see the do really good things, the more of them are likely to sell. I certainly plan on showing mine off to clients once I have it (I obviously can't show it to them beforehand). I can see it being of particular interest to some who'd like net access in a small form factor, but to whom the keyboard and screen of a mobile phone are just a bit TOO twee to be really useful.

[conso]

Woo, it's only a little more then 2 months to go! Wait... wasn't it the same a month ago? And 3 months before that?

I don't care for estimates no more. I still have my money in and it will be in at least till 8th of may, but I want to see progress and facts, no estimates. Did you even book the factory? Did they give you a date for starting?