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Batch 2 Release Date


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#106 Deviladvocate25

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Posted 16 June 2009 - 11:06 PM

To phawx and monks you guys are correct....and to all reading my post please pardon my wording. I do not want people to cancel....my problem was people that are impatient. This project is bigger than one person. This project is about having a dream device that big companies are not making. Again I meant no malice. DO NOT CANCEL!!!! lol tongue.gif we came this far as a community

#107 GunPei2X

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Posted 16 June 2009 - 11:11 PM

QUOTE (Monk @ Jun 16 2009, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So you have your limit too.


Absolutely, and if I reach it, I'll cancel my pre-order. Until then, though, I'm glad to show these guys some faith that they want the Pandora out the door more than anyone else and are doing their best to achieve that. They have a heck of a lot more to lose than us by not releasing it ASAP, and a lot more to gain than us by releasing it quickly. It's actually quite a pleasing sign that they are taking such care when they could have released a dogy product quickly.


#108 VRAndy

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Posted 16 June 2009 - 11:59 PM

QUOTE (Monk @ Jun 16 2009, 06:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well, exactly, actually {skratches head}. That "skew" is, AFAICS, exactly the data OpenPandora would have seen and used to help them (HELP) decide on their course. I imagined it was precisely how many "yaysayers" against how many "naysayers" there were that they were looking at, nothing more.
Sigh. OK. I don't want to debate statistics here, but I can't rest when someone is wrong on the Internet. It's a personal failing of mine.

Here's the poll as it stands

73 respondents claim they will cancel before October 1st.
152 Respondents claim they will never cancel.
57 respondents are somewhere in between.

Perfectly Representative Sample
The niave reading of this is that 25.8% of the whole 3500 pre-orderers claim they will pull out before October 1st. For a total of 906 cancellations!

Forum Attracts Nervous People
Let's assume that the forum has attracted 100% of the people thinking of pulling out before October. Everyone else doesn't check the forums because they don't care about when Pandora comes out. In that case only 2.09% of the whole 3500 pre-orderers claim they will pull out before October 1st, for a total of 73 cancellations.

Forum Attracts Enthusiasts and Fanboys
On the other hand, let's say that 100% of the die-hard pandora fans voted in the poll. That means that there are only 152 die-hards, representing four percent of the whole. If the remainder is a representative sample, you've got 56.2% claiming that they will pull out before October 1st, for a frightening total of 1965 cancellations!

So we have three scenarios here with possible claimed pull-outs of 906,73, or 1965.

You say that they were watching to "See which way it skewed", but they couldn't possibly know.

Of course, if this were a random sampling, there'd be no problem, we'd use the naive model and multiply out the percentages, calculate the error bars and we'd be done. That is how REAL polls are done. They choose phone numbers either at random or randomly from a specific target group of people, and poll them. Even if we knew what the bias is, we could try to compensate for it. But who knows what kind of bias this poll had? Both of the "possible" scenarios above seem equally likely. Or, at least equally unlikely.

And that doesn't even consider these other problems :
  • Not everyone who voted pre-ordered a Pandora. But how many of these "false votes" are there? And which way did they vote? Who knows.
  • The poll is vaugly worded. What does " it's over for me" mean? I assumed it meant "I'll cancel my order", but did everyone interpret it that way? If not, how many people interpreted it diferently, and how did they interpret it?
  • People bullshit on the internet How many of the 73 people will REALLY pull out when their day arrives? I'll bet less than a quarter. People are all talk. But how could I be sure?
  • People LIE on the Internet Many people may have voted that they would pull out soon in the hopes of encouraging OP to somehow hurry up. Other people may have voted "I'll Never Give up" in order to encourage OP to take their time, or to encourage others to have patience.


Forum polls are nothing more than party games. Since I think we're mostly dudes here, it's more fun than Spin The Bottle, but it means even less.



Phew. Ok off-topic Tirade over. Sorry 'bout the long post.

If I was a betting man I'd guess that people will stick around as long as the information keeps flowing. Who would anyone cancel when every [X] days they read about new and exciting progress? I know some people disagree with me on this, but I enjoy reading even about setbacks. It's interesting to read about engineering problems and the ways people overcome them.

#109 Olexxy

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 12:02 AM

Thanks Ed for all the answers provided here smile.gif

I don't write often here, I am just following with good interest the project, and will certainly not cancel my order based on the noise made by some people here, although I understand questions being raised.

In my view, there is no misleading at the time of preorders, I learnt about the project only 3 or 5 days before the pre-orders started, enough time for me to investigate a bit on the forum and understand who you guys were and the "start-up" side of the project. Pre-ordering a big toy is not a life issue for me and I can't understand people taking so seriously the level of "risks" associated with the project.. People should do their homework and balance desire for the pandora against credibility of the project and their financial situation, if not then impulse buying has never been associated with guaranteed long-term satisfaction...

Anyway openpandora is a niche project that I really fell for, especially for the open spirit in it and the good hardware choices, I am very glad that a team took on such a great project and is trying to turn it to reality, please continue and keep us informed of the progress smile.gif

#110 EvilDragon

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 06:40 AM

I guess most people will cancel the order when there is NO progress made anymore.

This time may be the hardest, we don't have any videos or pictures to show to you which would be new (you've seen a working Pandora with mat in a CNC case, the only thing next to it would be the final Pandora which is what we're all waiting for).

As soon as there is progress to follow and we're nearing the completion, most people would most probably stick with us.

I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.

Well, I can just guess, but I surely wouldn't cancel it when I see how it enters mass production and I've waited for such a long time already smile.gif

#111 Gruso

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 07:13 AM

QUOTE (EvilDragon @ Jun 17 2009, 04:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.
ooh, photos from the factory are a must! Even just a couple.

#112 Pleng

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 07:21 AM

QUOTE (EvilDragon @ Jun 17 2009, 07:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.


Ha! ED finally confirms Craig's motivation for the "July" lie prediction! tongue.gif

#113 EvilDragon

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 08:57 AM

QUOTE (Pleng @ Jun 17 2009, 09:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
QUOTE (EvilDragon @ Jun 17 2009, 07:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.


Ha! ED finally confirms Craig's motivation for the "July" lie prediction! tongue.gif


wink.gif Well, BOARDS mass production does start in July, yes. That's pretty much sure (unless a lightning struck the company or something like that).
But the CASES won't go into mass production likely before August (might be early or middle August, depending on how fast the moulding can start) smile.gif

#114 r00tw00t

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 09:11 AM

So late October is a good estimation when Pandoras will start to arrive all over the world(?)

Edited by r00tw00t, 17 June 2009 - 09:11 AM.


#115 EvilDragon

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 09:53 AM

QUOTE (r00tw00t @ Jun 17 2009, 11:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So late October is a good estimation when Pandoras will start to arrive all over the world(?)


That's a bit late. If the case works out fine, we're definately talking about August smile.gif

#116 Iorgy77

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 11:10 AM

So its two months again?

The people I feel sorry for are those that dont even bother with forums and blogs. I have recieved not one email letting me know whats going on since the refund fiasco so those folks probably just think they got royally scammed.

#117 (naw)mcx

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 11:45 AM



#118 Miknal

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 01:06 PM

QUOTE (Iorgy77 @ Jun 17 2009, 12:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So its two months again?

The people I feel sorry for are those that dont even bother with forums and blogs. I have recieved not one email letting me know whats going on since the refund fiasco so those folks probably just think they got royally scammed.



It is indeed, but take two months with a pinch of salt, Craigx said July, and seemed to be proven false within a week. And he is the fellow that runs the show.

I agree that a newsletter would be a good idea. The average punter is seeing no email correspondence, and a website that has been updated twice this year (which is being generous, seeing as one of those updates was a new years message). To be honest, I don't blame people for feeling a little paranoid.

Personally, I have asked for a refund. I still intend to buy a pandora eventually, and I do not believe it is vapourware, or that Craig is being dishonest. But as someone with limited disposable income, the 200 in the pandora means I cannot buy other things that would keep me occupied, and I would rather have 200's worth of items now than carry on hearing the rolling "it will be ready in two months" updates.
Sorry if that comes off as bitchy, but for all the talk equating customers jumping ship to idiots who do not understand what type of project this is, it is worth understanding that some of us didn't really sign up for the honour of supporting a technological revolution.
Some of us just wanted to play computer games.

Edited by Miknal, 17 June 2009 - 01:12 PM.


#119 B-ZaR

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 05:14 PM

QUOTE (EvilDragon @ Jun 17 2009, 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's pretty much sure (unless a lightning struck the company or something like that).

Please don't say things like that. I can already see the headlines:

A lightning has struck the factory! Pandora delayed until winter!

cool.gif

#120 VRAndy

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Posted 17 June 2009 - 07:43 PM

QUOTE (EvilDragon @ Jun 17 2009, 05:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's a bit late. If the case works out fine, we're definately talking about August smile.gif
Do all the cases show up in a giant box, or do you get them in small batches? If the latter, will the Pandoras go out in small batches? Or will you wait until all 4000 of them are finished?